Enjoy the Fruits of our Labor: Our 2016 Long-Range Festival Forecast

We hope you are enjoying the holiday brought to you by the American labor movement. As part of our own late-summer break, we are taking a moment to share a brief forecast of some of spring 2016's US festival headliners and sub-headliners. It's early days yet, but we are now in a position to make some preliminary calls regarding several major festival lineups for next year. 

For each of the festivals below, we have selected a number of acts that we categorize as either Likely (no guarantees, but we have good reason to believe that they will headline next year) or Possible (far more speculative, but not simply picked out of a hat) to Probable (still speculative, but we have particular reason to think their stars will align). Additionally, under the Don't count them out heading, we name two or three acts that we think just might join LCD's reunion/revivification party in 2016.

Coachella

Likely: LCD Soundsystem, Lana del Rey

Probable: Dan Auerbach's The Arcs, The Libertines

Possible to Probable: Radiohead, perhaps The National

Possible in addition or instead: any one and perhaps two of Coldplay, Gorillaz, Iron Maiden, Kanye West, Metallica, and maybe Mumford and Sons, Beyonce, Paul McCartney, or the Rolling Stones. 

Don't count them out: N.W.A., or maybe Guns 'n Roses

Jazz Fest

Possible: The Dixie Chicks

Governors Ball

Likely: Radiohead and/or Phish

Probable: Lana del Rey

Possible: The National, The xx

Bonnaroo

Likely: Phish

Possible to Probable: The Arcs, Drake, Lana del Rey, and perhaps AC/DC or Black Sabbath

Don't count them out: Fleet Foxes

Keep in mind that it is difficult to make predictions at this early date and that circumstances may change. 

It is even less advisable to forecast festivals later in 2016, but we will nevertheless note a few interesting Lollapalooza possibilities, including a headlining appearance by hometown favorite Kanye West (and/or a reunited N.W.A.), a performance arising out of the new electronic dance music project from another native Chicagoan, Rage Against the Machine's Tom Morello, and what might be a rare 2016 show by Jack White and Alison Mosshart's The Dead Weather. 

As for Outside Lands, we think that there is a decent possibility that it will feature local heroes Green Day and/or one of the new groups from local legend Carlos Santana. And we take interest in the prospect of a new "America Rocks" festival in late June in Rhode Island, with organizers bandying about names like Metallica, The Black Keys, and Arctic Monkeys. The last, if they return in 2016, will also be top prospects for one or two of the later festivals above.

We will be back later in the year and early the next with more as information develops...

Desert Sands are Swirling...

We here at the Festival Forecaster have been quiet for several months.

During that time, we saw the Rolling Stones tour and Grateful Dead shows we predicted come to pass, including the secret LA Stones gig (and some other appearances that turned out to be private or non-performing) and the follow-up "Dead & Company" shows this Fall. Unfortunately, the big Live Earth event we expected in NYC in June was canceled in its entirety, but the city will see big names at its Global Citizen Festival next month, including two headliners - Coldplay and Pearl Jam - that we predicted all the way back in April.

We hope to back soon with more about the Fall Dead tour, future Stones events, and predictions for the 2016 festival season. But we already have one grain of sand that just can't wait: we believe that there is a strong possibility that Guns 'n Roses LCD Soundsystem will reunite and headline the 2016 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival. Developing...

Waiting for Wednesday

This coming Wednesday, May 20th, may see two big-name surprise shows, one on each coast of the U.S., and both potentially featuring the biggest names in rock 'n roll. 

The Stones in Hollywood...

The Rolling Stones, set to kick off their North American tour one week from today, are busy rehearsing in the Los Angeles area, and are set to play a warm-up gig or two in that city this week. We believe that the first of two events will be going down Wednesday night at the historic Fonda Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard. Tickets to this (these) show(s) will not be easy to come by, as the venue fits just 1,200 people, and we're not sure that many (or any) will be made available to the public. We're also not sure that the Fonda is the place to line up for them - tickets may be sold instead at the El Rey or the Roxy, among other places (maybe you'll have to pull one out of a hat at the Magic Castle) - if anyone asks, tell them you're just waiting on some friends. Watch the band's twitter tomorrow morning for a special announcement, though that seems more likely to discuss the recording of a new Rolling Stones record than to contain any details regarding these theatre gigs. 

...and Elsewhere

If you don't make the surprise Stones gig in LA, you won't necessarily have missed your chance to see them in a smaller venue this summer. We expect at least one more surprise gig in and around the coming stadium tour, and perhaps several, primarily in the major cities that the band is skipping this time around North America. Chicago, for instance, could see a surprise appearance during the five nights off between the first two shows in late May, or perhaps the four in mid-June, coincident with the great Chicago Blues Festival, though that period would also be ripe for a surprise gig in New Orleans between shows in Orlando and Nashville. As we have said for months, we believe the New York area will see an appearance on June 18th as part of the big Live Earth event, and perhaps additional shows tacked onto the end of the tour (the 7/20-29 timeframe looks ripest), though we no longer quite expect the latter. Once the tour is over, we also expect a celebratory return to Toronto, perhaps at historic Massey Hall around the last weekend of July. And don't be shocked by a more abbreviated return to the States next year, perhaps in the spring.

The Beatles back on Ed Sullivan?

Meanwhile, on late Wednesday afternoon on the East Coast, David Letterman and Paul Shaffer will be taping their last episode of Late Night at New York's historic Ed Sullivan Theater. That theater, of course, is most famous for musical appearances by Elvis Presley and the Beatles, among other early rock legends. No guests have been announced for the final show - Monday's features Tom Hanks and Eddie Vedder, while Bill Murray and Bob Dylan appear on Tuesday - but assuming that Dave hosts one or two final performers (which is not a given), we think that they may well include Sir Paul McCartney (and perhaps his pal Ringo Starr?), perhaps reprising Macca's 2009 outdoor appearance on the theater marquee (originally inaugurated by Phish in 2004). Other possibilities include Jay-Z, who canceled a marquee appearance in 2013 and will be fresh off two promotional club gigs this weekend, and the Foo Fighters, who have been termed Letterman's favorite band, ingenuously or otherwise, and could play on their own or serve as backing band to one or more other artists before heading off to Europe to start their long summer tour. While a marquee appearance will be best heard outdoors, we recommend a call to the show's standby phone number to those in the New York area looking to score a free ticket to one of the final Letterman shows.

Very Big Announcement(s) Coming Soon?

This Wednesday is Earth Day, and it may bring with it the announcement of the potentially huge Live Earth: Road to Paris event. The picture for that event is getting even clearer, and we've updated our lineup predictions here. In the meantime, you can join an intended 1 billion people demanding climate action by signing the petition at liveearth.org.

Additionally, now that April 20 has come and gone, the Grateful Dead appear to have sold out their Fare Thee Well event in California and announced nationwide theater simulcasts, and Phil Lesh has announced a concert at Central Park Summerstage in September - we were right that he would play the venue this year, but wrong about the month - watch for the additional shows we've forecasted to be announced very soon. However, as we've said all along, we've never been entirely sure that the tour will happen in June. If it is not announced within the next week or so, look for a similar tour hitting New York, Colorado, and more to happen later this year, probably around late September and early October.

Austin City Limits Festival 2015

We expect the lineup for 2015's Austin City Limits Festival to be announced within days, and once again ACL threatens to be one of the last but far from the least of the major festivals. Here are our abbreviated predictions for the headliner lineup and some of the bigger names on the undercard...

Headliners

Paul McCartney (or maybe Elton John)

AC/DC (or maybe Metallica)

Foo Fighters

Mumford and Sons 

Florence and the Machine and/or My Morning Jacket

Kendrick Lamar and/or The Weeknd (but don't count out Drake or Kanye West)

Bassnectar

Undercard

Alabama Shakes

alt-J

Angus and Julia Stone

Banks

Ben Harper

Dillon Francis

Father John Misty

Future Islands

Gary Clark, Jr.

George Ezra

Glass Animals

Hozier

Of Monsters and Men

St. Paul and the Broken Bones

Stromae

Sturgill Simpson

Sylvan Esso

TV on the Radio

Twenty One Pilots

The War on Drugs

and a few maybes: Alesso, A$AP Rocky, Charli XCX, Chet Faker, Cold War Kids, fka Twigs, Kygo, Tove Lo

New York, Got the Ways and Means - More Dead to Come!

As we predicted, the Grateful Dead have announced two additional shows at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, south of San Francisco, on June 27th and 28th. Now what about those additional tourdates we predicted that were not announced with them? Well hold on, Dead fans, more are coming!

To be sure, the Santa Clara shows will be the only additional shows to feature the "Fare Thee Well" lineup featuring all four surviving members of the Dead with Trey Anastasio. But, as said previously, we expect additional shows featuring a slightly different lineup to be announced later this month, and that they will include some or all of the following previously-mentioned dates:

6/13 Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival, Manchester, TN 

6/15-16 Mann Center for the Performing Arts, Philadelphia, PA

6/18 Live Earth: Road to Paris, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

6/19-21 (2 shows) Citi Field, New York, NY

6/22-25 (3 shows) Red Rocks Amphitheatre, Morrison, CO

These shows will feature at least two and probably three members of the Dead - Bob Weir, Bill Kreutzmann, and perhaps Mickey Hart - but in most or all cases not the fourth member, Phil Lesh, who will be replaced by a rotating cast of Dead-inspired fill-ins. Anastasio will also be absent from most of these shows, we believe, though keyboards will remain handled by one or both of the Fare Thee Well team of Bruce Hornsby and Jeff Chimenti. 

So who else will fill Garcia (and Lesh)'s big shoes? Bonnaroo, which reportedly unsuccessfully offered $3 million for an appearance by the full Dead, might instead land a Lesh-less lineup with members of Southern favorites like the Allman Brothers, the Black Crowes, and Widespread Panic filling in as part of a "superjam". If the band plays smaller shows in Philly and perhaps elsewhere in the Northeast, meanwhile, look for a smaller-time lineup that may feature Weir and Lesh's Furthur sideman John Kadlecik on lead guitar, backed by members of his Golden Gate Wingmen band, which includes Chimenti. As for Colorado we are more confident of a stand there than an appearance at either of the above, and expect the Red Rocks lineup to feature pop star John Mayer (who may feature in earlier shows as well), Phish's Mike Gordon, and long-time Dead-world guitarist Steve Kimock. 

The New York area is the only additional location that might see an appearance from all four members of the band, more likely at the big Live Earth event than at any shows that may follow over the weekend. We expect Mayer to join the band at Live Earth and perhaps Citi Field as well, though again we would not be shocked if Anastasio joined there too. If Lesh does not play New York, we could see the bass being handed to Aaron Dessner of Brooklyn's The National.  

And that may not be all. As we have said for weeks, we expect more tribute events akin to May's "Dear Jerry" concert in Maryland to take place this year, including after the Soldier Field shows. While we are relying very heavily on our spidey sense for this one, we believe that one of these may be an all-star tribute to the Grateful Dead at New York's Central Park Summerstage on June 22, possibly featuring Phil Lesh and Friends, plus big names like Paul McCartney, Robert Plant, Sean Lennon, Los Lobos (whose David Hidalgo could appear on guitar at one of the Dead events), Dwight Yoakam, the Indigo Girls, Bela Fleck and Abigail Washburn, Todd Snider, one or more members of Sonic Youth and The National, and more.

One final note on all of the above. Some have expressed great skepticism about the notion that additional dates will be announced. We note that similar skepticism was expressed before the Santa Clara shows were announced, and even before the Soldier Field shows we predicted became public. We make no promises and acknowledge an element of guesswork in our predictions, but we do not post them without serious indications that something of the sort is in fact going to happen. While we won't share precisely what we've been told, or by whom, we will note a few supporting tea leaves, including the fact that Hornsby has recently canceled performances planned for June 19th-26th, that Gordon's recently-announced solo tour includes a conspicuous break from June 22nd-25th, that Kadlecik and Chimenti warm up together in the Northeast the weekend of the 12th-14th, and that many of the artists above have rehearsed with one or more members of the Dead in recent weeks. 

Look for various additional shows above to be announced within the next few weeks, perhaps as soon as tomorrow, but more likely after the Santa Clara shows sell out. The week of April 20th seems like a good bet.

Central Park's Summerstage and More in 2015

New York City's Summerstage is set to announce its 30th anniversary lineup of mostly free performances at Central Park's 5000-capacity Rumsey Playfield (among other locations thorughout the five boroughs) this Wednesday. 

Below, we've put together a list of the top-billed acts at shows we anticipate at Summerstage and elsewhere in Central park this Summer (with by-admission benefit shows marked $). Note the potentially huge June 22nd gala, and read down to the end for possibly the biggest event of all.

[Updated 4/7-8]

5/18 Tedeschi Trucks Band

5/19 Mastodon $

6/6 Blue Note Jazz Festival featuring Me'shell Ndegeocello and Roy Hargrove

6/7 Emmanuel Jal

6/12? NPR's Ask Me Another

6/13 Soul Rebels Brass Band

6/13 New York Mississippi Picnic (on Dead Road between the Meadow and Bandshell)

6/14 John Prine?

6/15 Metropolitan Opera Summer Recital Series

6/?? Ibeyi? and Hollie Cook?

6/17 Lindsey Stirling $ 

6/17 New York Philharmonic conducted by Alan Gilbert, with Joshua Bell (on the Great Lawn)

6/17 New York Philharmonic conducted by Charles Dutoit, with Renaud Capucon (on the Great Lawn)

6/20 or 7/26 Caribou 

6/21 Fete de la Musique/Make Music NY (throughout the park)

6/22 City Parks Foundation gala tribute concert (potentially featuring Paul McCartney, Robert Plant and many more) $

6/23 The Knights (at the Bandshell)

6/24 The Kooks with Atlas Genius $

6/?? BattleFest Nation and screening of Flex is Kings

6/27? The Felice Brothers with the Barr Brothers

6/28 Lucinda Williams?

6/29 Ingrid Michaelson with Jukebox the Ghost $

6/30 Ensemble LPR and Simone Dinnerstein (at the Bandshell)

7/2 Laurie M. Taylor/Soul Movement

7/5 or 12? Body/Head, The Ghost of a Saber Tooth Tiger 

7/7-11 Latin Alternative Music Conference presents Systema Solar, Nacao Zumbi, and more

7/14 Boston Symphony Orchestra Chamber Players (at the Bandshell)

7/15 George Clinton and Parliament-Funkadelic

7/18? New York City Ballet?

7/19? Lake Street Dive, Bela Fleck and Abigail Washburn?

7/21 Orpheus Chamber Orchestra (at the Bandshell)

7/22 Milky Chance with X Ambassadors $

7/25 Bombino

7/26? Rock Steady Crew anniversary featuring Masta Ace?

7/27 Dawes, First AId Kit $
7/28 Rise Against $

7/29 Philadanco, TU Dance

8/1 Dr. John

8/2 Brasil Summerfest

8/4 Chamber Music Society of Lincoln Center? (at the Bandshell)

8/5 Father John Misty with Angel Olson $

8/8 Gilles Peterson, Afrika Bambaataa

8/8 Great Jazz (on the Great Hill) 

8/?? Elvis Costello?

8?/?? Common?

8/15 or 16 Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings?

9/24 Walk the Moon $

9/26 Global Citizen Festival feat. Coldplay, Pearl Jam? and more (on the Great Lawn)